The State of Biotech — 2026
93 companies across longevity, ADCs and the Polish scene — charted by stage, capital, geography and the signals the market is actually pricing.
1 · What the market is pricing
Prediction markets are the one place the crowd bets real money on biotech outcomes — a clean read on sentiment. The thesis: a metabolic supercycle, gated by the regulatory clock, not the science.
Implied probability — key live markets
Polymarket implied probabilities, snapshot mid-2026 — they move constantly. Sentiment, not fact. Oral GLP-1s (orforglipron, oral semaglutide) already cleared/at FDA in 2026.
Obesity is the consensus boom — the retatrutide doubt is the FDA clock (no NDA filed yet), not efficacy. Reimbursement is the real catalyst — Medicare's GLP-1 Bridge starts July 2026. The priced risk is Washington (RFK/FDA), not a pandemic (~10%).
2 · Where the innovation is
Companies by landscape
Companies by technology
Mapped via mechanism / focus heuristics across all landscapes.
Pipeline maturity (all companies)
3 · ADC consolidation
The modality big pharma is buying. Precedent acquisitions and alliances:
ADC mega-deals
Headline transaction / alliance value, USD.
ADC landscape — target × payload class
| target ↓ / payload → | Topo-I inhibitor | Auristatin | Maytansinoid | DNA-damaging | DNA-crosslinker (PBD) | Tubulin inhibitor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HER2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| TROP2 | 3 | |||||
| CD30 | 1 | |||||
| Nectin-4 | 2 | |||||
| Tissue Factor | 1 | |||||
| CD79b | 1 | |||||
| FRα | 1 | 1 | 2 | |||
| BCMA | 1 | |||||
| CD33 | 1 | |||||
| CD19 | 1 | |||||
| B7-H3 | 1 | |||||
| HER3 | 1 | |||||
| Claudin 18.2 | 1 | |||||
| B7-H4 | 1 | |||||
| c-Met | 1 | |||||
| Napi2b | 1 |
4 · Longevity capital
Best-funded longevity programs
Disclosed private capital, USD — public-co names excluded.
Longevity pipeline by stage
5 · Poland — the BioIndex
A market-cap-weighted snapshot of listed Polish biotech (25 names, 13.3B PLN aggregate).
Polish BioIndex — weight by market cap
Approx market caps, 2026-06 (GPW/NewConnect). Listed names only.
Polish scene by capital tier
Polish scene by city (HQ)
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